Abstract: Background – Companion dogs have been studied as sentinels for human Borrelia burgdorferi risk, but previous studies were largely regional and lacked lifestyle covariates for refined sentinel models. Objectives – To assess the utility of Dog Aging Project (DAP) data for geo-temporal sentinel modeling of human Lyme disease risk across the United States. Animals – 1,248 DAP dogs with owner-reported Lyme disease diagnosis (2005 – 2023). Methods – State- and county-level annual human Lyme disease reports were obtained from CDC public records. Geo-temporal associations between DAP dogs with Lyme diagnoses and human Lyme disease incidence were evaluated. Dogs were further stratified by demographics (breed, size, age, sex), residential setting (urban, suburban, rural), owner-reported activity level (sedentary, moderate, high), pet health insurance status, and ectoparasite prevention use (continuous, seasonal, occasional, none) to assess factors influencing sentinel performance. Results – Preliminary fixed-effect analysis revealed that, at the state level, presence of a DAP dog with Lyme diagnosis in a given year was associated with increased human Lyme disease incidence in the subsequent year (P = 0.012). Dog demographic and lifestyle factors associated with this increase included age range 3-7 years (P = 0.037), moderate activity level (P = 0.009), uninsured status (P = 0.021) and seasonal use of ectoparasite prevention (P = 0.048). Conclusions – DAP data seem to be suitable for use in geo-temporal sentinel modeling for human Lyme disease risk and provide lifestyle covariates that may enable stratification of sentinel performance.
